Iraklis 1908 vs OFI – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Iraklis 1908 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Iraklis 1908 vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees OFI travel to Kaftanzoglio Stadium to take on Iraklis 1908. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Iraklis 1908's home record at Kaftanzoglio Stadium: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Super League 1 appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, OFI have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Iraklis 1908 1.00 PPG, OFI 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Iraklis 1908 trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
OFI trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Iraklis 1908 33% | OFI 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Iraklis 1908 17% | OFI 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Iraklis 1908 1.19 xG and OFI 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.796 / defence 1.103 | OFI attack 0.947 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Iraklis 1908's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Iraklis 1908 games / 32 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 37% | Draw 35% | OFI 28%. Fair-value odds: Iraklis 1908 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | OFI 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Iraklis 1908 at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Iraklis 1908 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Iraklis 1908 33% | OFI 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Iraklis 1908 vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kaftanzoglio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Iraklis 1908 37% | Draw 35% | OFI 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Iraklis 1908 1.19 / OFI 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Iraklis 1908 attack 0.796 / def 1.103 | OFI attack 0.947 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Iraklis 1908 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Iraklis 1908 xG
Expected Goals
1.02
OFI xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Iraklis 1908 vs OFI kick off?
Iraklis 1908 vs OFI is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
Where is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Kaftanzoglio Stadium.
What competition is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI part of?
Iraklis 1908 vs OFI is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Iraklis 1908 a 37% chance of winning, OFI a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Iraklis 1908 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Iraklis 1908 and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Iraklis 1908 vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Iraklis 1908 and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Iraklis 1908 and OFI in?
Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Iraklis 1908's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against OFI's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Iraklis 1908's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Iraklis 1908 Win
37%
2.73
35%
2.84
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Iraklis 1908 xG
Total xG
2.21
1.02
OFI xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Iraklis 1908 and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 1.02 for OFI, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Iraklis 1908 vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Iraklis 1908's recent record stands at 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 2L across 6 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Iraklis 1908 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Iraklis 1908 have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's season.
The Goals Picture
Iraklis 1908 are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.33 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: OFI in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Iraklis 1908 and OFI in coming into this match?
Iraklis 1908 have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while OFI have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Iraklis 1908 at home or OFI away?
Iraklis 1908's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Iraklis 1908 at home: 1.33 PPG; OFI away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Iraklis 1908 or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Iraklis 1908 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, OFI in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Iraklis 1908 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Iraklis 1908 33% BTTS, OFI 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Iraklis 1908 and 67% for OFI.
On the defensive side: Iraklis 1908 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OFI in 33%; Iraklis 1908 have failed to score in 33% of games; OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Iraklis 1908 home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Iraklis 1908 play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Iraklis 1908's recent matches and 33% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Iraklis 1908 vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Iraklis 1908's recent games and 67% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Iraklis 1908 and OFI tend to score early?
Iraklis 1908 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OFI in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.