Ionikos 5-1 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ionikos at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis meet at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 5). This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 May 2022 at 18:30 UK time.
Current Form
Ionikos's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ionikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Apollon Smirnis have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Apollon Smirnis's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Ionikos. A 0.70 PPG lead over Apollon Smirnis (1.80 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Ionikos, 0 for Apollon Smirnis and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2022, ended Ionikos 4–0 Apollon Smirnis — a Ionikos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Ionikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Apollon Smirnis half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 53% versus Apollon Smirnis 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 50% | Apollon Smirnis 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 1.52 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.935 / defence 1.200 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.566 / defence 1.644. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.644 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ionikos's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.566 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Ionikos's last 26 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 26.
Result probabilities: Ionikos 56% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 17%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 1.77 | Draw 3.84 | Apollon Smirnis 5.72. The model has a clear lean to Ionikos (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ionikos are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ionikos 50% (last 10 home games) | Apollon Smirnis 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Monday 2 May 2022 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 56% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Ionikos 1.52 / Apollon Smirnis 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.935 / def 1.200 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.566 / def 1.644 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Ionikos (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Apollon Smirnis xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis FAQs
What time does Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Monday 2 May 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Ionikos 5 - 1 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 56% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ionikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ionikos's attack rating (0.94) and Apollon Smirnis's defence rating (1.64), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.57x) against Ionikos's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from Ionikos's last 26 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ionikos Win
56%
1.77
26%
3.84
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.23
0.71
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
4%
26.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Ionikos and 0.71 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ionikos's recent record stands at 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Apollon Smirnis, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 18L across 30 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ionikos by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Apollon Smirnis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ionikos have managed 4W 5D 5L from their last 14 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Apollon Smirnis's away record stands at 2W 1D 11L across their last 14 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ionikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ionikos are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.43 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 27%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Current Season
Apollon Smirnis
Current Season
Ionikos (Home) vs Apollon Smirnis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ionikos
Current Season
Apollon Smirnis
Current Season
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis Form FAQs
What form are Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 4W 8D 18L in their last 30 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Ionikos's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.21 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Ionikos have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ionikos won Ionikos 4-0 Apollon Smirnis on 23 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ionikos have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Ionikos
1
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Ionikos have won 2, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2022: Ionikos 5-1 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis?
Ionikos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 50%, Apollon Smirnis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ionikos) and 50% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 36% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ionikos vs Apollon Smirnis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ionikos's recent matches and 36% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ionikos's recent games and 50% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and Apollon Smirnis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Ionikos's recent matches and 57% of Apollon Smirnis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ionikos run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat Apollon Smirnis 5-1 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 1.52 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.71 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Ionikos beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.57 / defence 1.64, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 56% | Draw 26% | Apollon Smirnis 17%, with Ionikos to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 50%, Apollon Smirnis 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ionikos arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.