Atromitos 2-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Stadio Peristeriou to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 3W 1D 5L at Stadio Peristeriou — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. OFI are 0.70 PPG clear of Atromitos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 50% versus OFI 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 55% | OFI 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.26 xG and OFI 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 1.103 / defence 1.388 | OFI attack 0.879 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.128. Data: 20 Atromitos games / 22 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 34% | Draw 26% | OFI 40%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | OFI 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atromitos 56% | OFI 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 34% | Draw 26% | OFI 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Atromitos 1.26 / OFI 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 1.103 / def 1.388 | OFI attack 0.879 / def 1.156 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: OFI (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.38
OFI xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs OFI kick off?
Atromitos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 16 February 2022 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Atromitos 2 - 2 OFI.
Where is Atromitos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs OFI part of?
Atromitos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 34% chance of winning, OFI a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atromitos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atromitos and OFI in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 1.10x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.88x) against Atromitos's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 20/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.83
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.63
1.38
OFI xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Atromitos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.38 for OFI, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atromitos's recent record stands at 3W 4D 13L from 20 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 6L across 20 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours OFI by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 3W 1D 5L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.65 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OFI in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and OFI in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 3W 4D 13L in their last 20 games (0.65 PPG), while OFI have gone 8W 6D 6L in their last 20 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.11 PPG; OFI away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Atromitos or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, OFI in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 56%, OFI 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Atromitos) and 56% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI in 33%; Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games; OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Atromitos's recent matches and 44% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Atromitos's matches and 56% of OFI's.
Do Atromitos and OFI tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, OFI in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and OFI share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and OFI finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.26 xG and OFI 1.38 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 1.10 / defence 1.39 against OFI attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 20/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 34% | Draw 26% | OFI 40%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 55%, OFI 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.