Asteras Tripolis 0-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Asteras Tripolis take on Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 21 December 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Volos NFC are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Volos NFC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 35% versus Volos NFC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 26% | Volos NFC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.17 xG and Volos NFC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.862 / defence 0.762 | Volos NFC attack 1.172 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.084. Asteras Tripolis's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Asteras Tripolis games / 39 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 36% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 26%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Volos NFC 3.85. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 30% | Volos NFC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 36% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.17 / Volos NFC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.862 / def 0.762 | Volos NFC attack 1.172 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Volos NFC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 21 December 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Asteras Tripolis 0 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 36% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 26% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
Record (2 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 1W | Draws 1 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.75
37%
2.67
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.13
0.97
Volos NFC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.97 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 13W 15D 18L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 17W 13D 16L from 46 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.17 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 6W 9D 7L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.48 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Volos NFC away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.50 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, Volos NFC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 27%, Volos NFC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Asteras Tripolis) and 59% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 68% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 59% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Asteras Tripolis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.17 xG and Volos NFC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Volos NFC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.86 / defence 0.76 against Volos NFC attack 1.17 / defence 1.10, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 36% | Draw 37% | Volos NFC 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 26%, Volos NFC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.17 PPG, Volos NFC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.