Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis to take on Asteras Tripolis. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 games at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis this term (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Asteras Tripolis 40% and Volos NFC 87% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 27% | Volos NFC 87%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.82 xG and Volos NFC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.018 / defence 0.923 | Volos NFC attack 1.135 / defence 1.696. League average goals — home 1.053 / away 1.182. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.696 — this is suppressing Asteras Tripolis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Asteras Tripolis games / 15 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 51% | Draw 23% | Volos NFC 26%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Volos NFC 3.85. Asteras Tripolis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Asteras Tripolis at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 25% | Volos NFC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 51% | Draw 23% | Volos NFC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.82 / Volos NFC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 1.018 / def 0.923 | Volos NFC attack 1.135 / def 1.696 | league avg home 1.053 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Volos NFC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Asteras Tripolis 1 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 51% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.35
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
3.06
1.24
Volos NFC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
4%
23.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.24 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 5W 4D 6L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.27 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Asteras Tripolis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Asteras Tripolis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded. Volos NFC's attacking output running into Asteras Tripolis's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 87%.
Last 15 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Volos NFC away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.86 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Asteras Tripolis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Asteras Tripolis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Asteras Tripolis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Asteras Tripolis
2
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, Volos NFC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 29%, Volos NFC 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Asteras Tripolis) and 86% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Asteras Tripolis's games and 100% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Asteras Tripolis's matches and 86% of Volos NFC's.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Asteras Tripolis edge out Volos NFC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Volos NFC 1-0 at Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.82 xG and Volos NFC 1.24 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Asteras Tripolis fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Volos NFC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Volos NFC attack 1.14 / defence 1.70, drawn from 16/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 51% | Draw 23% | Volos NFC 26%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 27%, Volos NFC 87%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 87% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.27 PPG, Volos NFC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.