Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Asteras Tripolis take on Panetolikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos meet at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 4. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Asteras Tripolis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Asteras Tripolis have posted 2W 2D 6L at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Panetolikos have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Panetolikos away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panetolikos are 0.60 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Asteras Tripolis lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Panetolikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 48% versus Panetolikos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 46% | Panetolikos 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 0.97 xG and Panetolikos 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.841 / defence 1.167 | Panetolikos attack 0.814 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Data: 52 Asteras Tripolis games / 52 Panetolikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 34%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Panetolikos 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 50% | Panetolikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 4 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Asteras Tripolis 0.97 / Panetolikos 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.841 / def 1.167 | Panetolikos attack 0.814 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Panetolikos xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Asteras Tripolis 2 - 1 Panetolikos.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos is a Relegation Group - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 31% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos?
Record (7 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 2W | Draws 3 | Panetolikos 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.84) and Panetolikos's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panetolikos's attack (0.81x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
35%
2.83
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.98
1.01
Panetolikos xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.01 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 17W 15D 29L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Panetolikos's form line: 20W 14D 27L from 61 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 1.21 for Panetolikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 10W 10D 10L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.90 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Panetolikos away?
Panetolikos's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.20 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
3
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, Panetolikos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Panetolikos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 50%, Panetolikos 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Asteras Tripolis) and 23% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos in 33%; Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 27% of games; Panetolikos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Panetolikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 37% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 23% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Panetolikos in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Asteras Tripolis defy the odds to beat Panetolikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Panetolikos 2-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Relegation Group - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 0.97 xG and Panetolikos 1.01 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 / defence 1.17 against Panetolikos attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 31% | Draw 35% | Panetolikos 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Asteras Tripolis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, Panetolikos 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 1.08 PPG, Panetolikos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Panetolikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.