Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium plays host to Asteras Tripolis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Asteras Tripolis have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Asteras Tripolis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Levadiakos (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Levadiakos's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Asteras Tripolis's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 1W, Levadiakos 2W, 4D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Asteras Tripolis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 50% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 47% | Levadiakos 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.38 xG and Levadiakos 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.936 / defence 1.056 | Levadiakos attack 1.020 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 Asteras Tripolis games / 26 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 29%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Asteras Tripolis 50% | Levadiakos 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.38 / Levadiakos 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.936 / def 1.056 | Levadiakos attack 1.020 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Levadiakos xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 40% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Record (7 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 1W | Draws 4 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Asteras Tripolis's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.02x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.28
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.53
1.16
Levadiakos xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.16 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Asteras Tripolis's recent record stands at 8W 11D 13L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. Asteras Tripolis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 10L across 32 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. Levadiakos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Asteras Tripolis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Asteras Tripolis have managed 6W 4D 6L from 16 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.97 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Pre-Season
Levadiakos
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 10L in their last 32 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Levadiakos away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.38 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 50%, Levadiakos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Asteras Tripolis) and 62% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 31% of games; Levadiakos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 50% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Asteras Tripolis's matches and 62% of Levadiakos's.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.