Asteras Tripolis 3-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 37%, yet in-form Larisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis and Larisa meet at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Asteras Tripolis's home record at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Larisa's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Larisa arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 0 for Larisa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Larisa — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Asteras Tripolis 46% versus Larisa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 46% | Larisa 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.08 xG and Larisa 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.828 / defence 1.181 | Larisa attack 0.721 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. Data: 52 Asteras Tripolis games / 26 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 35% | Larisa 28%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Larisa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Larisa (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 40% | Larisa 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 1 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 35% | Larisa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.08 / Larisa 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.828 / def 1.181 | Larisa attack 0.721 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Larisa xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What was the final score in Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Asteras Tripolis 3 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa is a Relegation Group - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 37% chance of winning, Larisa a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Larisa?
Record (2 meetings): Asteras Tripolis 0W | Draws 2 | Larisa 0W.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Larisa in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Larisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.83) and Larisa's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.72x) against Asteras Tripolis's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
37%
2.70
35%
2.85
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
1.99
0.91
Larisa xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 0.91 for Larisa, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Asteras Tripolis come into this having played 26 games, going 3W 8D 15L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Asteras Tripolis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Larisa sit at 0.88 PPG from 26 outings (4W 11D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.65 PPG for Asteras Tripolis against 0.88 for Larisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Asteras Tripolis's home form reads 2W 5D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Larisa have taken 0.85 points per game from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.85 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Larisa in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 8D 15L in their last 26 games (0.65 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 11D 11L in their last 26 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Larisa away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 0.85 PPG; Larisa away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Asteras Tripolis have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Larisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Asteras Tripolis
3
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Larisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, Larisa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Asteras Tripolis and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Larisa 1-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Asteras Tripolis and Larisa?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Asteras Tripolis 54%, Larisa 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Asteras Tripolis) and 38% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 31% of games; Larisa in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Asteras Tripolis's recent matches and 38% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 38% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Larisa tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Larisa in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Asteras Tripolis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Larisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asteras Tripolis beat Larisa 3-1 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Relegation Group - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asteras Tripolis 1.08 xG and Larisa 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Asteras Tripolis beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asteras Tripolis attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Larisa attack 0.72 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asteras Tripolis 37% | Draw 35% | Larisa 28%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Asteras Tripolis 46%, Larisa 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Asteras Tripolis 0.65 PPG, Larisa 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Asteras Tripolis win broke the near-deadlock. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Larisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.