Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Asteras Tripolis host Kalamata at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Asteras Tripolis — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Asteras Tripolis have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalamata stand at 2W 1D 3L from 6 Super League 1 matches — 1.17 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kalamata's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Asteras Tripolis 1.60 PPG, Kalamata 1.17 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Asteras Tripolis register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Kalamata in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Asteras Tripolis in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Kalamata in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Asteras Tripolis 67% and Kalamata 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Asteras Tripolis 50% | Kalamata 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asteras Tripolis 1.38 xG and Kalamata 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.936 / defence 1.028 | Kalamata attack 1.046 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Data: 32 Asteras Tripolis games / 6 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 42% | Draw 33% | Kalamata 26%. Fair-value odds: Asteras Tripolis 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Kalamata 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Asteras Tripolis 60% | Kalamata 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 42% | Draw 33% | Kalamata 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Asteras Tripolis 1.38 / Kalamata 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Asteras Tripolis attack 0.936 / def 1.028 | Kalamata attack 1.046 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Asteras Tripolis xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Kalamata xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata kick off?
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
Where is Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
What competition is Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata part of?
Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Asteras Tripolis a 42% chance of winning, Kalamata a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata in?
Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Kalamata (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Asteras Tripolis's attack rating (0.94) and Kalamata's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Asteras Tripolis's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
42%
2.41
33%
3.03
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Asteras Tripolis xG
Total xG
2.43
1.05
Kalamata xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Asteras Tripolis and 1.05 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Asteras Tripolis have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 2W 2D 2L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Asteras Tripolis on 1.33 PPG, Kalamata on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Asteras Tripolis have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Kalamata have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Asteras Tripolis are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Kalamata in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Asteras Tripolis have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Asteras Tripolis at home or Kalamata away?
Asteras Tripolis's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Asteras Tripolis at home: 1.33 PPG; Kalamata away: 1.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Asteras Tripolis at 67%, Kalamata at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Asteras Tripolis and 33% for Kalamata.
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis have failed to score in 33% of games; Kalamata in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asteras Tripolis home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Asteras Tripolis play Kalamata?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Asteras Tripolis's games and 67% of Kalamata's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Asteras Tripolis's recent games and 33% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata tend to score early?
Asteras Tripolis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.