Aris Thessalonikis 0-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Aris Thessalonikis face Volos NFC.

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Analysis & Preview

Volos NFC travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1 (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Aris Thessalonikis — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Volos NFC stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Volos NFC's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

Aris Thessalonikis hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Volos NFC and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended Aris Thessalonikis 2–0 Volos NFC — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Aris Thessalonikis and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Volos NFC trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus Volos NFC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 41% | Volos NFC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.64 xG and Volos NFC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.269 / defence 0.796 | Volos NFC attack 1.007 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.241. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack rating of 1.269 — their 1.64 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Aris Thessalonikis have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Volos NFC's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 37 games and Volos NFC's last 37.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 52% | Draw 26% | Volos NFC 22%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.94 | Draw 3.82 | Volos NFC 4.50. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 70% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 40% (last 10 away games).

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