Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAOK at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

PAOK (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

PAOK away from home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–0 PAOK — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus PAOK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 44% | PAOK 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Aris Thessalonikis surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.09 xG and PAOK 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.996 / defence 0.903 | PAOK attack 1.401 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.163. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.401, which lifts their away xG to 1.47. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 44 games and PAOK's last 44.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 28% | Draw 26% | PAOK 46%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.55 | Draw 3.84 | PAOK 2.18. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights