Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAOK at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs PAOK encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 17). Kick-off: Sunday 7 January 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

PAOK (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

PAOK away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

PAOK arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, PAOK edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOK — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus PAOK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 56% | PAOK 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.29 xG and PAOK 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.964 / defence 0.915 | PAOK attack 1.748 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.170. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.748, which lifts their away xG to 1.87. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 42 games and PAOK's last 42.

Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 25% | Draw 25% | PAOK 50%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.95 | Draw 4.03 | PAOK 2.01. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.29 / 1.87) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights