Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos meet at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1 (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Panathinaikos's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Panathinaikos have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Panathinaikos are 1.10 PPG clear of Aris Thessalonikis over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 3 for Panathinaikos and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 Panathinaikos — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus Panathinaikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 42% | Panathinaikos 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG and Panathinaikos 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.951 / defence 0.796 | Panathinaikos attack 1.029 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.136. Aris Thessalonikis have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Panathinaikos's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 47 games and Panathinaikos's last 47.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Draw 33% | Panathinaikos 35%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.05 | Draw 3.07 | Panathinaikos 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Panathinaikos's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 40% (last 10 home games) | Panathinaikos 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 9 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Draw 33% | Panathinaikos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 / Panathinaikos 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.951 / def 0.796 | Panathinaikos attack 1.029 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Panathinaikos xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos FAQs
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 33% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.03x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 47 games and Panathinaikos's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
33%
3.05
33%
3.07
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
1.83
0.93
Panathinaikos xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.93 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 26W 11D 20L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Panathinaikos's form line: 33W 14D 10L from 57 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 1.82 PPG from their last 28 home games (15W 6D 7L).
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 15W 7D 6L from their last 28 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.84 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Panathinaikos in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis (Home) vs Panathinaikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos Form FAQs
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 26W 11D 20L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 33W 14D 10L in their last 57 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.82 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
4
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Panathinaikos have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 54%, Panathinaikos 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 57% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Panathinaikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 46% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 57% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Panathinaikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 74% of Panathinaikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Panathinaikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panathinaikos 2-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG and Panathinaikos 0.93 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panathinaikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.95 / defence 0.80 against Panathinaikos attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 33% | Draw 33% | Panathinaikos 35%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 42%, Panathinaikos 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.