Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Aris Thessalonikis take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus make the trip to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to face Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Aris Thessalonikis's home record at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 0W, Olympiakos Piraeus 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 33% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 45% | Olympiakos Piraeus 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.22 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.339 / defence 0.917 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.395 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. Aris Thessalonikis carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 1.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Aris Thessalonikis games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 31% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 34%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 31% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.22 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.339 / def 0.917 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.395 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 31% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.34) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.40x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
35%
2.88
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.50
1.28
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 1.28 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 31W 13D 23L from 67 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 43W 17D 7L across 67 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 18W 8D 7L from 33 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 20W 9D 4L across 33 trips, a 2.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.85 scored and 0.72 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into Aris Thessalonikis's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 31W 13D 23L in their last 67 games (1.58 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 43W 17D 7L in their last 67 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.88 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 33%, Olympiakos Piraeus 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 52% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.22 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.28 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.34 / defence 0.92 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.40 / defence 0.73, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 31% | Draw 35% | Olympiakos Piraeus 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 45%, Olympiakos Piraeus 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.58. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.