Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees OFI travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OFI — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
OFI in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 31% versus OFI 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 38% | OFI 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.48 xG and OFI 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.046 / defence 0.908 | OFI attack 0.918 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.140. Data: 35 Aris Thessalonikis games / 35 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 32% | OFI 21%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | OFI 4.76. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Aris Thessalonikis 30% | OFI 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 32% | OFI 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.48 / OFI 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.046 / def 0.908 | OFI attack 0.918 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.95
OFI xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 1 OFI.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 46% chance of winning, OFI a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. OFI (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 1.05x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
46%
2.15
32%
3.09
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.43
0.95
OFI xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
5%
20.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.95 for OFI, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 21W 8D 13L from 42 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 16L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 11W 5D 4L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
OFI's away record stands at 6W 7D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.12 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 8D 13L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 14D 16L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or OFI away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 1.90 PPG; OFI away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, OFI in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
1
Draws
5
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, OFI have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 30%, OFI 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis have failed to score in 45% of games; OFI in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 45% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 50% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and OFI tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, OFI in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis and OFI share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis and OFI finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.48 xG and OFI 0.95 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against OFI attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 46% | Draw 32% | OFI 21%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 38%, OFI 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.