Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis plays host to Aris Thessalonikis versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 6D 3L from 9 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos away from home this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.13 in Aris Thessalonikis's favour (1.80 vs 0.67) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Aris Thessalonikis register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Levadiakos in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Levadiakos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 56% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Aris Thessalonikis 22% | Levadiakos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 xG and Levadiakos 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.250 / defence 0.787 | Levadiakos attack 0.993 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.203. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Aris Thessalonikis games / 9 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 19%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Levadiakos 5.26. Aris Thessalonikis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Aris Thessalonikis 70% | Levadiakos 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 / Levadiakos 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.250 / def 0.787 | Levadiakos attack 0.993 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Levadiakos xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Aris Thessalonikis 3 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 53% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
Record (2 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 1W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-6D-3L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.25) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.99x) against Aris Thessalonikis's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 35/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.59
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.60
0.94
Levadiakos xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
4%
27.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.94 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 0W 6D 3L across 9 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 1.33 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levadiakos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 games (2.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 6D 3L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Levadiakos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.50 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Aris Thessalonikis
4
Draws
1
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
From 8 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, Levadiakos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 50%, Levadiakos 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 75% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Levadiakos 3-1 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 xG and Levadiakos 0.94 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against Levadiakos attack 0.99 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 53% | Draw 28% | Levadiakos 19%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 22%, Levadiakos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.