Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Apollon Smirnis at 43%, yet in-form Ionikos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ionikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Kamaras to face Apollon Smirnis in Super League 1 (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Monday 27 September 2021 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Apollon Smirnis (all games): 0W 0D 3L across their last 3 — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 3.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ionikos's record over their last 3 games: 1W 1D 1L (1.33 PPG). Last five: L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On a straight form reading, Ionikos are the stronger side — 1.33 PPG clear of the hosts (1.33 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Apollon Smirnis — key trading statistics (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ionikos — key trading statistics (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 67% of Apollon Smirnis's games and 0% of Ionikos's. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Apollon Smirnis 100% | Ionikos 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Apollon Smirnis 1.25 xG and Ionikos 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.865 / defence 1.442 | Ionikos attack 0.747 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 0.862. Ionikos's defence rating of 1.386 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Apollon Smirnis's projected output up. Ionikos's attack rating of 0.747 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.442 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ionikos's projected output up. Data: built from Apollon Smirnis's last 3 games and Ionikos's last 3. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 43% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 27%. Fair-value odds: Apollon Smirnis 2.30 | Draw 3.42 | Ionikos 3.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Apollon Smirnis as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ionikos (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Apollon Smirnis if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Apollon Smirnis 67% (last 3 games) | Ionikos 0% (last 3 games).
The Poisson model's sample (Apollon Smirnis 3 games, Ionikos 3) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 4 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Monday 27 September 2021 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Apollon Smirnis 43% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Apollon Smirnis 1.25 / Ionikos 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Apollon Smirnis attack 0.865 / def 1.442 | Ionikos attack 0.747 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.041 / away 0.862 • Poisson stance: Apollon Smirnis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Apollon Smirnis xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Ionikos xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos FAQs
What time does Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos kick off?
Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos?
Apollon Smirnis 0 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos part of?
Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 4) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Apollon Smirnis a 43% chance of winning, Ionikos a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Apollon Smirnis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Apollon Smirnis's attack rating (0.86) and Ionikos's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.75x) against Apollon Smirnis's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Apollon Smirnis's last 3 games and Ionikos's last 3, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Apollon Smirnis Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.42
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Apollon Smirnis xG
Total xG
2.18
0.93
Ionikos xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Apollon Smirnis and 0.93 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Apollon Smirnis come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L.
On the other side, Ionikos sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D across their last five.
Ionikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Apollon Smirnis are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 3.67 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ionikos in 0%.
Defensively: Ionikos in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
Ionikos
Early Season
Apollon Smirnis (Home) vs Ionikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Apollon Smirnis
Early Season
Ionikos
Early Season
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos Form FAQs
What form are Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Apollon Smirnis or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Apollon Smirnis have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ionikos in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 2 May 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Ionikos have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ionikos won Ionikos 4-0 Apollon Smirnis on 23 Feb 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Apollon Smirnis
1
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, Ionikos have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2022: Ionikos 5-1 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos?
Ionikos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Ionikos see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Apollon Smirnis) and 0% (Ionikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Apollon Smirnis and 33% for Ionikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ionikos in 67%; Apollon Smirnis have failed to score in 33% of games; Ionikos in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Apollon Smirnis home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Apollon Smirnis vs Ionikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 0% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Apollon Smirnis's matches and 33% of Ionikos's.
Do Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Apollon Smirnis's recent matches and 33% of Ionikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Apollon Smirnis's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 4, as Apollon Smirnis and Ionikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Apollon Smirnis 1.25 xG and Ionikos 0.93 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Apollon Smirnis fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ionikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Apollon Smirnis attack 0.86 / defence 1.44 against Ionikos attack 0.75 / defence 1.39, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Apollon Smirnis 43% | Draw 29% | Ionikos 27%, with Apollon Smirnis to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Apollon Smirnis 100%, Ionikos 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ionikos's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ionikos arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Apollon Smirnis conceded 0 against a 3.67 average — tighter than their form line. Ionikos conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.