AEK Athens FC 0-1 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Kamaras to take on AEK Athens FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, AEK Athens FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Georgios Kamaras this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Volos NFC — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AEK Athens FC 1.20 PPG, Volos NFC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Volos NFC trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 56% versus Volos NFC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 59% | Volos NFC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.42 xG and Volos NFC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.041 / defence 0.999 | Volos NFC attack 1.037 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 0.974. Data: 27 AEK Athens FC games / 27 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 46% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 26%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 3.85. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: AEK Athens FC 50% | Volos NFC 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Kamaras • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 46% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.42 / Volos NFC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.041 / def 0.999 | Volos NFC attack 1.037 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.349 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Volos NFC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
AEK Athens FC 0 - 1 Volos NFC.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Kamaras.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 46% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.52
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.01
Volos NFC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
6%
15.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.01 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 15W 7D 12L from 34 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 13L across 34 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: AEK Athens FC on 1.53 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 7W 2D 7L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 3W 7D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.47 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 15W 7D 12L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 10W 11D 13L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Volos NFC away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 8, Volos NFC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AEK Athens FC at 56%, Volos NFC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for AEK Athens FC and 62% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of AEK Athens FC's games and 75% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 62% of Volos NFC's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat AEK Athens FC 0-1 at Stadio Georgios Kamaras, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.42 xG and Volos NFC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.00 against Volos NFC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 46% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 59%, Volos NFC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Volos NFC's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.53 PPG, Volos NFC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.