AEK Athens FC 4-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Championship Round - 10 sees Volos NFC travel to OPAP Arena to take on AEK Athens FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, AEK Athens FC have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at OPAP Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at OPAP Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Volos NFC — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Volos NFC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
AEK Athens FC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. AEK Athens FC's 30% rate and Volos NFC's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, AEK Athens FC have won 2, Volos NFC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AEK Athens FC trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 43% versus Volos NFC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 53% | Volos NFC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.53 xG and Volos NFC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.356 / defence 0.866 | Volos NFC attack 0.985 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.001. AEK Athens FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 AEK Athens FC games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 50% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 17%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Volos NFC 5.88. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 30% | Volos NFC 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 10 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 50% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.53 / Volos NFC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.356 / def 0.866 | Volos NFC attack 0.985 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Volos NFC xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
AEK Athens FC 4 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC is a Championship Round - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 50% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
Record (3 meetings): AEK Athens FC 2W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 1W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus AEK Athens FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
50%
2.01
33%
3.06
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.39
0.85
Volos NFC xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
26.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.85 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AEK Athens FC's recent record stands at 39W 12D 17L from 68 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 30L across 68 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AEK Athens FC have managed 20W 4D 9L from 33 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 9W 12D 12L across 33 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 39W 12D 17L in their last 68 games (1.90 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 21W 17D 30L in their last 68 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Volos NFC away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.94 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Dec 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AEK Athens FC's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 8, Volos NFC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-2 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 39%, Volos NFC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (AEK Athens FC) and 54% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Volos NFC in 33%; Volos NFC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 52% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 54% of Volos NFC's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Volos NFC tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Volos NFC 4-0 at OPAP Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.53 xG and Volos NFC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Volos NFC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.87 against Volos NFC attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 50% | Draw 33% | Volos NFC 17%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 53%, Volos NFC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.