AEK Athens FC 2-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AEK Athens FC face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to OPAP Arena to face AEK Athens FC in Super League 1 (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Monday 30 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
AEK Athens FC's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
PAOK (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, PAOK have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 34% versus PAOK 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 52% | PAOK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.44 xG and PAOK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.025 / defence 0.886 | PAOK attack 1.214 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.058. PAOK have an above-average attack rating of 1.214, which lifts their away xG to 1.14. Data: built from AEK Athens FC's last 34 games and PAOK's last 34.
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 34% | PAOK 26%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.49 | Draw 2.97 | PAOK 3.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AEK Athens FC 50% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: OPAP Arena • Kick-off: Monday 30 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 34% | PAOK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG AEK Athens FC 1.44 / PAOK 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.025 / def 0.886 | PAOK attack 1.214 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
PAOK xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs PAOK FAQs
What time does AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 30 October 2023 at OPAP Arena.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
AEK Athens FC 2 - 0 PAOK.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at OPAP Arena.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs PAOK part of?
AEK Athens FC vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 40% chance of winning, PAOK a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AEK Athens FC and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AEK Athens FC vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.21x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from AEK Athens FC's last 34 games and PAOK's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
40%
2.49
34%
2.97
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.14
PAOK xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
6%
16.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AEK Athens FC vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 1.14 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AEK Athens FC come into this having played 44 games, going 31W 7D 6L for 2.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.91 PPG from 44 outings (24W 12D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.27 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.91 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AEK Athens FC's home form reads 16W 4D 1L across their last 21 home games, a 2.48 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 21 away games (9W 8D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.64 scored and 0.84 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games; PAOK in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
AEK Athens FC (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AEK Athens FC
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ AEK Athens FC vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are AEK Athens FC and PAOK in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 31W 7D 6L in their last 44 games (2.27 PPG), while PAOK have gone 24W 12D 8L in their last 44 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or PAOK away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 2.48 PPG; PAOK away: 1.67 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, PAOK in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 13 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won AEK Athens FC 3-0 PAOK on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AEK Athens FC
4
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ AEK Athens FC vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AEK Athens FC have won 2, PAOK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2026: PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 33%, PAOK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AEK Athens FC) and 48% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; PAOK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AEK Athens FC vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AEK Athens FC and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 48% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AEK Athens FC and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 48% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 81% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AEK Athens FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PAOK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAOK 2-0 at OPAP Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.44 xG and PAOK 1.14 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAOK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.89 against PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 34% | PAOK 26%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 52%, PAOK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAOK's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.27 PPG, PAOK 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.