AEK Athens FC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
AEK Athens FC's home record at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for AEK Athens FC, 1.50 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 52% versus Aris Thessalonikis 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 55% | Aris Thessalonikis 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.176 / defence 1.120 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.829 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.050. Data: 26 AEK Athens FC games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.16 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.176 / def 1.120 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.829 / def 1.001 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Aris Thessalonikis xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC 1 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 40% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.83x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
40%
2.50
30%
3.36
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.14
0.97
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.97 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 14W 6D 9L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 13W 8D 8L from 29 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 1.62 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (8W 1D 5L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 2D 6L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.00 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 28%.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 14W 6D 9L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 8D 8L in their last 29 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.79 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.43 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
3
Draws
0
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (AEK Athens FC) and 29% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 29% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat AEK Athens FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat AEK Athens FC 1-2 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Championship Round - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.97 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.12 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.83 / defence 1.00, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 40% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 55%, Aris Thessalonikis 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 1.66 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.