AEK Athens FC 3-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis meet at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis this season: 5W 0D 4L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Apollon Smirnis have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Apollon Smirnis's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 8L across 9 road games this term (0.11 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward AEK Athens FC. A 1.30 PPG lead over Apollon Smirnis (1.60 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AEK Athens FC, 0 for Apollon Smirnis and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AEK Athens FC — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Apollon Smirnis — key trading statistics (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 68% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 58% versus Apollon Smirnis 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 63% | Apollon Smirnis 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.58 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.037 / defence 1.250 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.481 / defence 1.594. League average goals — home 0.958 / away 1.168. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.594 — this is suppressing AEK Athens FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 AEK Athens FC games / 19 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 59% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 16%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Apollon Smirnis 6.25. The model has a clear lean to AEK Athens FC (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 56% | Apollon Smirnis 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 59% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.58 / Apollon Smirnis 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.037 / def 1.250 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.481 / def 1.594 | league avg home 0.958 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Apollon Smirnis xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis?
AEK Athens FC 3 - 0 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 59% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis?
Record (1 meetings): AEK Athens FC 0W | Draws 1 | Apollon Smirnis 0W.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AEK Athens FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Apollon Smirnis's attack (0.48x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
59%
1.71
25%
3.99
16%
6.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.70
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
6.10
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
3%
29.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.70 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 10W 3D 6L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Apollon Smirnis's form line: 1W 6D 12L from 19 games, 0.47 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Apollon Smirnis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (4W 0D 4L).
On the road, Apollon Smirnis have gone 0W 1D 7L from 8 away games — 0.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.37 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 26%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 10W 3D 6L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 6D 12L in their last 19 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.12 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AEK Athens FC
1
Draws
0
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis?
From 2 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 1, Apollon Smirnis have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when AEK Athens FC 3-0 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AEK Athens FC 62%, Apollon Smirnis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (AEK Athens FC) and 38% (Apollon Smirnis). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Apollon Smirnis in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Apollon Smirnis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 38% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Apollon Smirnis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of AEK Athens FC's matches and 38% of Apollon Smirnis's.
Do AEK Athens FC and Apollon Smirnis tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Apollon Smirnis in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Apollon Smirnis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Apollon Smirnis 3-0 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.58 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.70 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AEK Athens FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.25 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.48 / defence 1.59, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 59% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 16%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 63%, Apollon Smirnis 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 68% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.47. Form held, and they took the win. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.