Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 48%, yet in-form SC Paderborn 07 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 at Weserstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Werder Bremen — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Werder Bremen have posted 2W 2D 6L at Weserstadion — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SC Paderborn 07 — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 4–3 with Werder Bremen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 49% versus SC Paderborn 07 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 54% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.50 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.863 / defence 1.100 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.685 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.940 / away 1.339. Data: 35 Werder Bremen games / 1 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 48% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 24%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 4.17. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 48% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Werder Bremen 1.50 / SC Paderborn 07 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.863 / def 1.100 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.685 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.940 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SC Paderborn 07 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Weserstadion.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 48% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.54
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.51
1.01
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.01 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 8D 19L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Werder Bremen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.80 PPG from 35 outings (18W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Werder Bremen's home form reads 5W 4D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.71 points per game from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.66 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 8W 8D 19L in their last 35 games (0.91 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.12 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
0
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 3-4 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 47%, SC Paderborn 07 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Werder Bremen) and 47% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 47%; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 47% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.