Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Eintracht Frankfurt (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Werder Bremen face Eintracht Frankfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Weserstadion to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's home record at Weserstadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weserstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at Weserstadion than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Eintracht Frankfurt's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Werder Bremen's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Werder Bremen, 4 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 50% versus Eintracht Frankfurt 68%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 64% | Eintracht Frankfurt 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.81 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.755 / defence 1.100 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.206 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.436. Werder Bremen's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Eintracht Frankfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Werder Bremen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Werder Bremen games / 51 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 40%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 30% | Eintracht Frankfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Jan 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Werder Bremen 1.81 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.755 / def 1.100 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.206 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 16 January 2026 at Weserstadion.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Werder Bremen 3 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 36% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (9 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.76x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
36%
2.77
24%
4.19
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.71
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
15%
6.72
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
5%
18.59
7%
15.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.91 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 18W 14D 18L from 50 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 12L across 50 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.36 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 8W 8D 8L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 9W 8D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 2.06 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 68%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 14D 18L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 24W 14D 12L in their last 50 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.33 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 46%, Eintracht Frankfurt 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Werder Bremen and 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Werder Bremen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Werder Bremen's games and 75% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Werder Bremen's matches and 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt finished level at 3-3 at Weserstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.81 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.91 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Frankfurt outscored their 1.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.21 / defence 1.35, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 36% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 40%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.36 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.