VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg host FC Augsburg at Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Volkswagen Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VfL Wolfsburg 1.10 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Wolfsburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour FC Augsburg, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for VfL Wolfsburg.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with FC Augsburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Augsburg have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Augsburg trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 71% and FC Augsburg 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 62% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.957 / defence 1.268 | FC Augsburg attack 0.758 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.388. Data: 56 VfL Wolfsburg games / 56 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | FC Augsburg 3.57. VfL Wolfsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 80% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 / FC Augsburg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.957 / def 1.268 | FC Augsburg attack 0.758 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg 2 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 46% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
Record (9 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 3 | FC Augsburg 5W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating (0.96) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.82
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.09
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.33 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 15D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.21 PPG from 56 outings (18W 14D 24L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.12 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 5W 10D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 18W 14D 24L in their last 56 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 0.93 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2022, when FC Augsburg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 78%, FC Augsburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for VfL Wolfsburg and 59% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 48% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 59% of FC Augsburg's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat VfL Wolfsburg 2-3 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against FC Augsburg attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 46% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 28%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC Augsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 62%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.12 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.