VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Borussia Dortmund make the trip to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA to face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Wolfsburg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 4W 1D 5L at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Borussia Dortmund are 1.00 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
VfL Wolfsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 50% versus Borussia Dortmund 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 50% | Borussia Dortmund 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.29 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.772 / defence 1.009 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.243 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.183. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 VfL Wolfsburg games / 46 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 31% | Borussia Dortmund 39%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Borussia Dortmund 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 40% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 31% | Borussia Dortmund 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.29 / Borussia Dortmund 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.772 / def 1.009 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.243 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 30% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg's attack at 0.77x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.24x) against VfL Wolfsburg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
30%
3.30
31%
3.24
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
2.78
1.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.57
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.48 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Wolfsburg come into this having played 46 games, going 23W 12D 11L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Borussia Dortmund sit at 1.98 PPG from 46 outings (29W 4D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.98 for Borussia Dortmund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
VfL Wolfsburg's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Borussia Dortmund have taken 1.59 points per game from 22 outings (11W 2D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.28 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 70%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 23W 12D 11L in their last 46 games (1.76 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 29W 4D 13L in their last 46 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.95 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.59 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 41%, Borussia Dortmund 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for VfL Wolfsburg and 73% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 73% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 73% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-3 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.29 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.48 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 30% | Draw 31% | Borussia Dortmund 39%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 50%, Borussia Dortmund 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.76 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.