VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as VfL Wolfsburg welcome Bayer Leverkusen to VOLKSWAGEN ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayer Leverkusen — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for VfL Wolfsburg, 0 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Wolfsburg 48% versus Bayer Leverkusen 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Wolfsburg 52% | Bayer Leverkusen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.29 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.791 / defence 1.042 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.443 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.315. VfL Wolfsburg's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 VfL Wolfsburg games / 60 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 24% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 53%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.89. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfL Wolfsburg 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: VOLKSWAGEN ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 24% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.29 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.791 / def 1.042 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.443 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Bayer Leverkusen xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 24% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Wolfsburg 1W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 0W.
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
24%
4.14
23%
4.33
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
3.27
1.98
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
14%
7.22
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
3%
29.86
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.98 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 26W 14D 20L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 27W 16D 17L from 60 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Wolfsburg on 1.53 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 1.70 PPG from 30 outings (15W 6D 9L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 12W 9D 9L from 30 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.95 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 26W 14D 20L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 27W 16D 17L in their last 60 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
VfL Wolfsburg's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.70 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won 6-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Wolfsburg 43%, Bayer Leverkusen 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (VfL Wolfsburg) and 57% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Wolfsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 60% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent games and 57% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
VfL Wolfsburg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 0-2 at VOLKSWAGEN ARENA, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.29 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.98 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.04 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.44 / defence 0.96, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 24% | Draw 23% | Bayer Leverkusen 53%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 52%, Bayer Leverkusen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Wolfsburg 1.53 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.