VfL Wolfsburg 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as VfL Wolfsburg face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Volkswagen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
VfL Wolfsburg — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
VfL Wolfsburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayer Leverkusen — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Bayer Leverkusen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for VfL Wolfsburg.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended VfL Wolfsburg 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Wolfsburg 68% and Bayer Leverkusen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfL Wolfsburg 63% | Bayer Leverkusen 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: VfL Wolfsburg surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Bayer Leverkusen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 100% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Wolfsburg 1.74 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.146 / defence 1.249 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.334 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.400. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack rating of 1.334, which lifts their away xG to 2.33. VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output up. Data: built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 54 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 54.
Result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 29% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%. Fair-value odds: VfL Wolfsburg 3.47 | Draw 5.01 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.95. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (1.74 / 2.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Wolfsburg 90% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Volkswagen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Wolfsburg 29% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG VfL Wolfsburg 1.74 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.33 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.146 / def 1.249 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.334 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.33
Bayer Leverkusen xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Volkswagen Arena.
What was the final score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
VfL Wolfsburg 0 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Volkswagen Arena.
What competition is VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives VfL Wolfsburg a 29% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 51% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
VfL Wolfsburg's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus VfL Wolfsburg's defence, projects 2.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfL Wolfsburg's last 54 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
29%
3.47
20%
5.01
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
VfL Wolfsburg xG
Total xG
4.08
2.33
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.47
29%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.94
Clean Sheet
10%
10.31
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
3%
35.72
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 2.33 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, VfL Wolfsburg have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 18W 12D 24L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 41W 12D 1L from 54 games, 2.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 1.28 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Wolfsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 26 home games (8W 7D 11L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 19W 7D 0L from their last 26 away games — 2.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VfL Wolfsburg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.56 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
VfL Wolfsburg have gone 18W 12D 24L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 41W 12D 1L in their last 54 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Wolfsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Wolfsburg at home: 1.19 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.46 PPG.
Have VfL Wolfsburg or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Wolfsburg have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Bayer Leverkusen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
VfL Wolfsburg's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfL Wolfsburg
3
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Wolfsburg at 81%, Bayer Leverkusen at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for VfL Wolfsburg and 65% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Wolfsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of VfL Wolfsburg's games and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of VfL Wolfsburg's matches and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of VfL Wolfsburg's recent matches and 92% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Wolfsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen finished level at 0-0 at Volkswagen Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Wolfsburg 1.74 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.33 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.15 / defence 1.25 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.33 / defence 0.86, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Wolfsburg 29% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Wolfsburg 63%, Bayer Leverkusen 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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