VfL Bochum 0-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfL Bochum at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Bochum and Union Berlin meet at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, VfL Bochum have gone 4W 2D 1L this season (7 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 38% versus Union Berlin 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 44% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.50 xG and Union Berlin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.867 / defence 0.775 | Union Berlin attack 0.891 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.331. VfL Bochum's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 VfL Bochum games / 50 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 48% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 21%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Union Berlin 4.76. VfL Bochum hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Bochum are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: VfL Bochum 43% | Union Berlin 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 48% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG VfL Bochum 1.50 / Union Berlin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.867 / def 0.775 | Union Berlin attack 0.891 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Union Berlin xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
VfL Bochum 0 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin part of?
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 48% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both VfL Bochum and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Bochum's attack at 0.87x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.89x) against VfL Bochum's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.20
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Union Berlin xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
5%
21.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 0.92 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 6W 2D 8L from 16 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 4L across 16 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for VfL Bochum against 1.50 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — VfL Bochum are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Bochum come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.38 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 6W 6D 4L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or Union Berlin away?
VfL Bochum's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 2.00 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.86 PPG.
Have VfL Bochum or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfL Bochum have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
VfL Bochum
3
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Union Berlin?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 3, Union Berlin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and Union Berlin?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 43%, Union Berlin 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (VfL Bochum) and 71% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of VfL Bochum's games and 86% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of VfL Bochum's recent games and 71% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Bochum and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat VfL Bochum 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat VfL Bochum 0-1 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.50 xG and Union Berlin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfL Bochum fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.87 / defence 0.78 against Union Berlin attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 48% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 21%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Union Berlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 44%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union Berlin's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 1.25 PPG, Union Berlin 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.