VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Bochum and Union Berlin meet at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfL Bochum's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Union Berlin away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Union Berlin arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for VfL Bochum, 2 for Union Berlin and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 59% versus Union Berlin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 59% | Union Berlin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.16 xG and Union Berlin 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.737 / defence 1.233 | Union Berlin attack 0.851 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.432. VfL Bochum's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 VfL Bochum games / 64 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 29% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 45%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 2.22. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: VfL Bochum 30% | Union Berlin 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 29% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG VfL Bochum 1.16 / Union Berlin 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.737 / def 1.233 | Union Berlin attack 0.851 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Union Berlin xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
VfL Bochum 1 - 1 Union Berlin.
Where is VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin part of?
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 29% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VfL Bochum and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Union Berlin?
Record (7 meetings): VfL Bochum 3W | Draws 2 | Union Berlin 2W.
What form are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Bochum's attack at 0.74x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.85x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
29%
3.44
26%
3.80
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
2.67
1.50
Union Berlin xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
6%
15.45
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.50 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 12W 17D 35L from 64 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 31L across 64 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for VfL Bochum against 1.08 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 8W 10D 14L from 32 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 6W 7D 19L across 32 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.00 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 12W 17D 35L in their last 64 games (0.83 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 18W 15D 31L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or Union Berlin away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.06 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won 3-0 on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
VfL Bochum
3
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Union Berlin?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 3, Union Berlin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and Union Berlin?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 59%, Union Berlin 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (VfL Bochum) and 44% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 31% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of VfL Bochum's recent games and 44% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Bochum and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Bochum and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 31, as VfL Bochum and Union Berlin drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.16 xG and Union Berlin 1.50 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against Union Berlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 29% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 45%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 59%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 0.83 PPG, Union Berlin 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.