VfL Bochum 3-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Bochum at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfL Bochum and Union Berlin meet at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bundesliga (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
VfL Bochum's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Union Berlin (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Union Berlin away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. VfL Bochum's 1.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Union Berlin edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended VfL Bochum 1–1 Union Berlin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 55% versus Union Berlin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 60% | Union Berlin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.98 xG and Union Berlin 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.900 / defence 1.076 | Union Berlin attack 0.818 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.894 / away 1.397. Data: built from VfL Bochum's last 48 games and Union Berlin's last 47.
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 53% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 22%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 1.88 | Draw 3.98 | Union Berlin 4.59. VfL Bochum hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.98 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Bochum are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfL Bochum's last 10 home games and Union Berlin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfL Bochum 90% (last 10 home games) | Union Berlin 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 53% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG VfL Bochum 1.98 / Union Berlin 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.900 / def 1.076 | Union Berlin attack 0.818 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.894 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Union Berlin xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin FAQs
What time does VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
VfL Bochum 3 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin part of?
VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 53% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both VfL Bochum and Union Berlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Bochum's attack at 0.90x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.82x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from VfL Bochum's last 48 games and Union Berlin's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.98
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.21
1.23
Union Berlin xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
3%
33.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.23 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Bochum's recent record stands at 12W 12D 23L from 47 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 17L across 47 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfL Bochum heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfL Bochum have managed 9W 6D 7L from their last 22 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — VfL Bochum are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 8W 1D 13L across their last 22 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Bochum (Home) vs Union Berlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfL Bochum
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin Form FAQs
What form are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 21W 9D 17L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or Union Berlin away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.50 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won VfL Bochum 3-0 Union Berlin on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
VfL Bochum
3
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and Union Berlin?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, VfL Bochum have won 3, Union Berlin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and Union Berlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and Union Berlin?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 68%, Union Berlin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (VfL Bochum) and 59% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfL Bochum vs Union Berlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfL Bochum and Union Berlin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of VfL Bochum's games and 50% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfL Bochum and Union Berlin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of VfL Bochum's matches and 59% of Union Berlin's.
Do VfL Bochum and Union Berlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 73% of Union Berlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VfL Bochum run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat Union Berlin 3-0 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.98 xG and Union Berlin 1.23 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VfL Bochum beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Union Berlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 53% | Draw 25% | Union Berlin 22%, with VfL Bochum to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 60%, Union Berlin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with VfL Bochum winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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