VfL Bochum 3-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vonovia Ruhrstadion plays host to VfL Bochum versus FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfL Bochum have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
VfL Bochum's home record at Vonovia Ruhrstadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — VfL Bochum are significantly better at Vonovia Ruhrstadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Augsburg's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for VfL Bochum, 1.00 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfL Bochum register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Augsburg in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfL Bochum lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with VfL Bochum winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfL Bochum goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfL Bochum 48% versus FC Augsburg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 52% | FC Augsburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.90 xG and FC Augsburg 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.875 / defence 1.395 | FC Augsburg attack 1.185 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.252. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing VfL Bochum's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 VfL Bochum games / 65 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 35% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 42%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Bochum 70% | FC Augsburg 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 35% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 76% | xG VfL Bochum 1.90 / FC Augsburg 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.875 / def 1.395 | FC Augsburg attack 1.185 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
2.07
FC Augsburg xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
VfL Bochum 3 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 35% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg?
Record (3 meetings): VfL Bochum 2W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VfL Bochum's attack at 0.88x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.19x) against VfL Bochum's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
35%
2.85
23%
4.26
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.97
2.07
FC Augsburg xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.12
Clean Sheet
13%
7.92
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
4%
22.62
6%
16.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 2.07 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, VfL Bochum have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 20W 10D 35L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Augsburg's form line: 19W 15D 31L from 65 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for VfL Bochum against 1.11 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfL Bochum have posted 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (14W 6D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — VfL Bochum are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 7D 19L from 32 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfL Bochum come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.22 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 60%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 20W 10D 35L in their last 65 games (1.08 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 19W 15D 31L in their last 65 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Bochum have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
VfL Bochum
2
Draws
3
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when VfL Bochum 1-2 FC Augsburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 50%, FC Augsburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (VfL Bochum) and 59% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum have failed to score in 31% of games; FC Augsburg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of VfL Bochum's recent matches and 59% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfL Bochum vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of VfL Bochum's recent games and 59% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfL Bochum and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Bochum defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Bochum beat FC Augsburg 3-2 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.90 xG and FC Augsburg 2.07 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfL Bochum beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.88 / defence 1.40 against FC Augsburg attack 1.19 / defence 1.24, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 35% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 42%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual VfL Bochum win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 52%, FC Augsburg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 1.08 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Bochum win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.