VfB Stuttgart 2-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mercedes-Benz-Arena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Tuesday 15 December 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 0W 3D 2L this season (5 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this season.
Union Berlin have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 2W 2D 1L from 5 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.70 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Union Berlin in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 91% and Union Berlin 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 64% | Union Berlin 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.43 xG and Union Berlin 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.908 / defence 1.298 | Union Berlin attack 0.830 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.618. Data: 11 VfB Stuttgart games / 11 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 28% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 42%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 100% | Union Berlin 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Dec 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 28% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.43 / Union Berlin 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.908 / def 1.298 | Union Berlin attack 0.830 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.618 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Union Berlin xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 15 December 2020 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 28% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.91) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.83x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.39
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.17
1.74
Union Berlin xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
5%
20.12
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.74 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 4W 5D 2L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 4W 5D 2L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.55 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L). That actually lags their 1.55 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 2.09 scored and 1.36 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 91% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 0.60 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
3
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Union Berlin have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for VfB Stuttgart, 100% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for VfB Stuttgart and 60% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 100% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 60% of Union Berlin's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin finished level at 2-2 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.43 xG and Union Berlin 1.74 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 1.30 against Union Berlin attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 28% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 42%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 64%, Union Berlin 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 86%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.55 PPG, Union Berlin 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.