VfB Stuttgart 2-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart host Holstein Kiel at MHPArena in Bundesliga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
VfB Stuttgart at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Holstein Kiel — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Holstein Kiel away from home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus Holstein Kiel 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 76% | Holstein Kiel 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.64 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.345 / defence 0.916 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.931 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.680. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.345 — their 2.64 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 41 games and Holstein Kiel's last 7.
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 62% | Draw 20% | Holstein Kiel 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.61 | Draw 5.11 | Holstein Kiel 5.51. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.64 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 home games) | Holstein Kiel 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 62% | Draw 20% | Holstein Kiel 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG VfB Stuttgart 2.64 / Holstein Kiel 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.345 / def 0.916 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.931 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Holstein Kiel xG
72%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel FAQs
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 62% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 1.34x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VfB Stuttgart's last 41 games and Holstein Kiel's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.11
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
4.07
1.43
Holstein Kiel xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
7%
14.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
1%
77.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.43 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 41 games, going 25W 7D 9L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.71 PPG from 41 outings (21W 7D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 2.00 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 14W 5D 1L across their last 20 home games, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 2.05 points per game from their last 20 away games (12W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.80 scored and 1.46 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
VfB Stuttgart (Home) vs Holstein Kiel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VfB Stuttgart
Early Season
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel Form FAQs
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 25W 7D 9L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 21W 7D 13L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Holstein Kiel away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.35 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 2.05 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
0
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Holstein Kiel 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 65%, Holstein Kiel 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for VfB Stuttgart and 55% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Holstein Kiel in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VfB Stuttgart vs Holstein Kiel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 50% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 55% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Holstein Kiel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 95% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 75% of Holstein Kiel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Holstein Kiel 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Holstein Kiel 2-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 2.64 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.43 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.34 / defence 0.92 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.93 / defence 1.19, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 62% | Draw 20% | Holstein Kiel 18%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 76%, Holstein Kiel 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 2.00 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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