VfB Stuttgart 2-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 make the trip to Mercedes-Benz-Arena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 29 January 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at Mercedes-Benz-Arena: 0W 5D 3L from 8 Bundesliga appearances (0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in VfB Stuttgart's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant games, FSV Mainz 05 in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 78% and FSV Mainz 05 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 67% | FSV Mainz 05 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.56 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.910 / defence 1.231 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.746 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.494. FSV Mainz 05 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 VfB Stuttgart games / 18 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 41% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 33%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | FSV Mainz 05 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 88% | FSV Mainz 05 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 41% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.56 / FSV Mainz 05 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.910 / def 1.231 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.746 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FSV Mainz 05 xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 January 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 41% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (0.91) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.75x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.88
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.93
1.37
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
7%
14.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.37 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 5W 7D 6L from 18 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 12L across 18 games — 0.56 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VfB Stuttgart by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 0W 5D 3L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.00 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 2W 4D 12L in their last 18 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (0.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 0.62 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
1
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for VfB Stuttgart, 75% for FSV Mainz 05 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for VfB Stuttgart and 75% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 75% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 75% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FSV Mainz 05.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FSV Mainz 05 2-0 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.56 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.37 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.91 / defence 1.23 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.75 / defence 1.42, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 41% | Draw 26% | FSV Mainz 05 33%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 67%, FSV Mainz 05 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.56. That form edge translated into the three points. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.