VfB Stuttgart 0-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus FC St. Pauli in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart at MHPArena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward VfB Stuttgart. A 0.60 PPG lead over FC St. Pauli (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 62% versus FC St. Pauli 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 75% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.96 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.258 / defence 1.054 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.803 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.487. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 VfB Stuttgart games / 14 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 22%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | FC St. Pauli 4.55. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | FC St. Pauli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.96 / FC St. Pauli 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.258 / def 1.054 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.803 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.26
FC St. Pauli xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli?
VfB Stuttgart 0 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 51% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC St. Pauli in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.26) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.80x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.73
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.22
1.26
FC St. Pauli xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
14%
7.12
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
3%
32.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.26 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfB Stuttgart come into this having played 48 games, going 29W 9D 10L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 1.67 PPG from 48 outings (23W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.67 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
VfB Stuttgart's home form reads 17W 5D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 1.54 points per game from 24 outings (11W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.52 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 29W 9D 10L in their last 48 games (2.00 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 23W 11D 14L in their last 48 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC St. Pauli away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.33 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
VfB Stuttgart
0
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 67%, FC St. Pauli 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for VfB Stuttgart and 58% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 62% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 58% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat VfB Stuttgart 0-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.96 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.26 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. VfB Stuttgart fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.26 / defence 1.05 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 51% | Draw 27% | FC St. Pauli 22%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 75%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 2.00 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.