VfB Stuttgart 3-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg meet at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at Mercedes-Benz-Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 0W, FC Augsburg 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 66% and FC Augsburg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 56% | FC Augsburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.71 xG and FC Augsburg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.946 / defence 1.284 | FC Augsburg attack 0.814 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.369. Data: 60 VfB Stuttgart games / 59 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 32%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | FC Augsburg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.71 / FC Augsburg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.946 / def 1.284 | FC Augsburg attack 0.814 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC Augsburg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 44% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
Record (1 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 0W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.81x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.22
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.14
1.43
FC Augsburg xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.43 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 17W 17D 25L from 59 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 29L across 59 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.05 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 9W 9D 11L from 29 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 5W 6D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.07 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 16W 14D 29L in their last 59 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.24 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 72%, FC Augsburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (VfB Stuttgart) and 45% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 31%; FC Augsburg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 48% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 45% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FC Augsburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 3-2 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.71 xG and FC Augsburg 1.43 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against FC Augsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 44% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 32%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 56%, FC Augsburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.15 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.