VfB Stuttgart 2-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg meet at Mercedes-Benz-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 May 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Mercedes-Benz-Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Augsburg's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 68% versus FC Augsburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 58% | FC Augsburg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and FC Augsburg 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.025 / defence 1.225 | FC Augsburg attack 0.557 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.267. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing VfB Stuttgart's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 VfB Stuttgart games / 31 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 19%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 5.26. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 60% | FC Augsburg 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.58 / FC Augsburg 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.025 / def 1.225 | FC Augsburg attack 0.557 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.86
FC Augsburg xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 7 May 2021 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Mercedes-Benz-Arena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 53% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
VfB Stuttgart's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.56x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.57
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.45
0.86
FC Augsburg xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
4%
25.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.86 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfB Stuttgart's recent record stands at 10W 9D 12L from 31 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 16L across 31 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.06 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, VfB Stuttgart have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 4W 2D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.00 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 9W 6D 16L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or FC Augsburg away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
VfB Stuttgart have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 4-0 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
VfB Stuttgart
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 8, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-5 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 73%, FC Augsburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (VfB Stuttgart) and 40% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 47% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 40% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FC Augsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC Augsburg 2-1 at Mercedes-Benz-Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and FC Augsburg 0.86 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against FC Augsburg attack 0.56 / defence 1.22, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 53% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 19%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 58%, FC Augsburg 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.26 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.