VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfB Stuttgart face 1. FC Köln.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
VfB Stuttgart's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart's home record at MHPArena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MHPArena. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Köln have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. VfB Stuttgart's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, VfB Stuttgart have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with 1. FC Köln managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The historical record gives VfB Stuttgart a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 62% and 1. FC Köln 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 71% | 1. FC Köln 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.839 / defence 0.917 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.792 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.393. Data: 55 VfB Stuttgart games / 21 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 22%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Köln 4.55. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 40% | 1. FC Köln 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.58 / 1. FC Köln 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 0.839 / def 0.917 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.792 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.01
1. FC Köln xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 49% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
Record (8 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 5W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VfB Stuttgart's attack at 0.84x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.79x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.50
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.60
1.01
1. FC Köln xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
5%
21.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.01 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 26W 11D 18L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln's form line: 24W 12D 19L from 55 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for VfB Stuttgart against 1.53 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 1.70 PPG from 27 outings (14W 4D 9L).
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 11W 6D 10L from 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.51 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 26W 11D 18L in their last 55 games (1.62 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 24W 12D 19L in their last 55 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or 1. FC Köln away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 1.70 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
VfB Stuttgart go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 7, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 59%, 1. FC Köln 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (VfB Stuttgart) and 48% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 52% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 48% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Köln 3-1 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.58 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.79 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 49% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 22%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 71%, 1. FC Köln 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.62 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.