Union Berlin 2-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Berlin host VfL Wolfsburg at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 January 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 1L this season (7 games, 1.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.43 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 1W 4D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 2.00 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 79% and VfL Wolfsburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 64% | VfL Wolfsburg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.72 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.286 / defence 1.047 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.679 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.532. Union Berlin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Union Berlin games / 14 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 21%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.76. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 71% | VfL Wolfsburg 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 49% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Union Berlin 1.72 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.286 / def 1.047 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.679 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.09
VfL Wolfsburg xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 January 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Union Berlin 2 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 49% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (1.29) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.41
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.81
1.09
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
4%
26.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.09 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 14 games, going 6W 6D 2L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (6W 6D 2L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.71 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 3W 3D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Wolfsburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 6W 6D 2L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 6D 2L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.71 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Union Berlin's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 71%, VfL Wolfsburg at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Union Berlin) and 29% (VfL Wolfsburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Union Berlin's games and 71% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Union Berlin's recent games and 29% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg finished level at 2-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.72 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.09 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.29 / defence 1.05 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 49% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 21%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 64%, VfL Wolfsburg 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.71 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.