Union Berlin 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union Berlin host VfL Wolfsburg at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Union Berlin have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
VfL Wolfsburg — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.00 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Union Berlin have won 2, VfL Wolfsburg 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Union Berlin 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg — a VfL Wolfsburg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 44% versus VfL Wolfsburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 50% | VfL Wolfsburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.51 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.808 / defence 0.974 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.855 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.239. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 54 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 54.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.15 | Draw 3.40 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.14. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 30% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 46% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Union Berlin 1.51 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.808 / def 0.974 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.855 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.03
VfL Wolfsburg xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 46% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.81) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 54 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.40
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.54
1.03
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.03 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 11D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.33 PPG from 54 outings (19W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.48 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union Berlin's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across their last 26 home games, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 26 away games (9W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 23W 11D 20L in their last 54 games (1.48 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 19W 15D 20L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.00 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
VfL Wolfsburg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Union Berlin's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Union Berlin 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 46%, VfL Wolfsburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 50% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 27% of games; VfL Wolfsburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 46% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union Berlin's recent games and 50% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 69% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out VfL Wolfsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.51 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.81 / defence 0.97 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 46% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, VfL Wolfsburg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.48 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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