Union Berlin 1-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus VfL Bochum in Bundesliga (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfL Bochum's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Union Berlin's favour (1.10 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, VfL Bochum in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, VfL Bochum edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Union Berlin 3–4 VfL Bochum — a VfL Bochum win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 40% versus VfL Bochum 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 45% | VfL Bochum 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.84 xG and VfL Bochum 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.843 / defence 0.865 | VfL Bochum attack 0.746 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.481. VfL Bochum's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. VfL Bochum's attack rating of 0.746 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 47 games and VfL Bochum's last 47.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 56% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 17%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.79 | Draw 3.65 | VfL Bochum 5.95. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (56%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 70% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 56% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Union Berlin 1.84 / VfL Bochum 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.843 / def 0.865 | VfL Bochum attack 0.746 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.95
VfL Bochum xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum part of?
Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 56% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union Berlin and VfL Bochum will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.84) and VfL Bochum's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.75x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 47 games and VfL Bochum's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.65
17%
5.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.80
0.95
VfL Bochum xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.95
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
3%
37.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.95 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 10D 24L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
VfL Bochum's form line: 8W 13D 26L from 47 games, 0.79 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Union Berlin against 0.79 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 23 home games (10W 4D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 3D 17L from their last 23 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.15 scored and 2.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum in 64%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs VfL Bochum (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 13W 10D 24L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 8W 13D 26L in their last 47 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or VfL Bochum away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.48 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Bochum won VfL Bochum 3-0 Union Berlin on 16 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and VfL Bochum last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: VfL Bochum 1-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and VfL Bochum?
VfL Bochum have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 52%, VfL Bochum 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Union Berlin and 65% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 30% of games; VfL Bochum in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs VfL Bochum Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and VfL Bochum matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 56% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and VfL Bochum matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Union Berlin's matches and 65% of VfL Bochum's.
Do Union Berlin and VfL Bochum matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 78% of VfL Bochum's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and VfL Bochum finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.84 xG and VfL Bochum 0.95 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against VfL Bochum attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 56% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 17%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 45%, VfL Bochum 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.04 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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