Union Berlin 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Union Berlin at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Union Berlin and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.

Current Form

Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Union Berlin's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Union Berlin, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 55% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.03 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.951 / defence 0.792 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.648 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.322. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Union Berlin games / 31 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Union Berlin 68% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.47 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights