Union Berlin 1-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 48%, yet in-form FC St. Pauli provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
FC St. Pauli's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC St. Pauli away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, FC St. Pauli are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 40% versus FC St. Pauli 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | FC St. Pauli 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.90 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.961 / defence 1.090 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.472. Data: 35 Union Berlin games / 1 FC St. Pauli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 48% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 26%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | FC St. Pauli 3.85. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC St. Pauli (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 50% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 48% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Union Berlin 1.90 / FC St. Pauli 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.961 / def 1.090 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.36
FC St. Pauli xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Union Berlin 1 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 48% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (0.85x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
48%
2.06
26%
3.92
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.26
1.36
FC St. Pauli xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
4%
25.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.36 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 9W 7D 19L from 35 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 6L across 35 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Union Berlin heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 7W 2D 8L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 9W 4D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.77 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 9W 7D 19L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 20W 9D 6L in their last 35 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.35 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC St. Pauli won 3-0 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
1
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 47%, FC St. Pauli 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Union Berlin) and 59% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Union Berlin's games and 71% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Union Berlin's matches and 59% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out FC St. Pauli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat FC St. Pauli 1-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.90 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.36 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 48% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 26%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, FC St. Pauli 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Union Berlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.