Union Berlin 2-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Berlin 1.30 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Union Berlin, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 62% and Eintracht Frankfurt 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 51% | Eintracht Frankfurt 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.27 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.925 / defence 0.865 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.102 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.322. Data: 63 Union Berlin games / 63 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 36% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 35%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 50% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 36% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Union Berlin 1.27 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.925 / def 0.865 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.102 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin 2 - 0 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 36% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (1 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Frankfurt 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.93x the league average against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.41
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.53
1.26
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.26 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 24W 22D 17L from 63 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 21D 16L across 63 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.49 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 16W 12D 3L from 31 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 12W 9D 10L across 31 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.73 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Eintracht Frankfurt in 75%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 24W 22D 17L in their last 63 games (1.49 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 26W 21D 16L in their last 63 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.94 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Union Berlin
3
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 64%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union Berlin) and 64% (Eintracht Frankfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Union Berlin's games and 74% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union Berlin's matches and 64% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.27 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.26 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 36% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Frankfurt 35%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 51%, Eintracht Frankfurt 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.49 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.