Union Berlin 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Berlin — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Berlin have posted 5W 5D 0L at Stadion An der Alten Försterei — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union Berlin at 1.40 PPG versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Berlin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 69% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 50% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 2.19 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.946 / defence 0.922 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.994 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.834 / away 1.206. Borussia Mönchengladbach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Union Berlin games / 36 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 59% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 16%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Union Berlin (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 59% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Union Berlin 2.19 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.946 / def 0.922 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.994 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.834 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 59% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.95x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.98
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.29
1.10
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
11%
8.89
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
2%
57.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.10 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 12W 16D 8L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 12L across 36 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Berlin on 1.44 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 8W 9D 1L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 5W 6D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union Berlin are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.81 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 69%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 12W 16D 8L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.83 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union Berlin's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union Berlin
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 78%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Union Berlin and 83% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 72% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Union Berlin's games and 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Union Berlin's matches and 83% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Union Berlin and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 2.19 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.99 / defence 1.26, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 59% | Draw 25% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 16%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.44 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.