Union Berlin 2-5 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Bayern München travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union Berlin have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Union Berlin's 1.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Bayern München trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 67% and Bayern München 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Union Berlin 49% | Bayern München 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.19 xG and Bayern München 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.881 / defence 0.693 | Bayern München attack 1.673 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.227. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.673 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.693 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Union Berlin games / 43 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 32% | Bayern München 39%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Bayern München 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayern München are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 70% | Bayern München 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 32% | Bayern München 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Union Berlin 1.19 / Bayern München 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.881 / def 0.693 | Bayern München attack 1.673 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bayern München xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayern München kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Union Berlin 2 - 5 Bayern München.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayern München part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 29% chance of winning, Bayern München a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
29%
3.50
32%
3.11
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.62
1.42
Bayern München xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
7%
14.50
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.42 for Bayern München, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 16W 18D 9L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 31W 7D 5L from 43 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.05 PPG from 21 outings (11W 10D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 14W 3D 4L from 21 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.07 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Bayern München in 72%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 16W 18D 9L in their last 43 games (1.53 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 31W 7D 5L in their last 43 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.05 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Bayern München won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
3
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 0, Bayern München have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Berlin at 67%, Bayern München at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Union Berlin and 76% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 81% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Union Berlin's matches and 76% of Bayern München's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayern München tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Union Berlin 2-5 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.19 xG and Bayern München 1.42 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayern München outscored their 1.42 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.88 / defence 0.69 against Bayern München attack 1.67 / defence 0.79, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 29% | Draw 32% | Bayern München 39%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 49%, Bayern München 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.