SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Darmstadt 98 0.60 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 50% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 53% | 1. FC Heidenheim 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.04 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.608 / defence 1.526 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.922 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.411. SV Darmstadt 98's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 30 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 18% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 18% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.04 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.608 / def 1.526 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.922 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.99
1. FC Heidenheim xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 18% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (5 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.61) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
18%
5.71
25%
4.02
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.02
1.99
1. FC Heidenheim xG
5.71
18%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
2%
41.61
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.99 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 15D 26L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 1.58 PPG from 64 outings (27W 20D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.31 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 12W 8D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Heidenheim have taken 1.22 points per game from 32 outings (9W 12D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.72 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 23W 15D 26L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 27W 20D 17L in their last 64 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.38 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.22 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
4
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 53%, 1. FC Heidenheim 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 50% (1. FC Heidenheim).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 50% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Darmstadt 98 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.04 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.99 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. 1. FC Heidenheim landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.61 / defence 1.53 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 18% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 58%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 53%, 1. FC Heidenheim 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.31 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.