SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 0W 1D 2L from 3 Bundesliga matches — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfL Wolfsburg — 1.27 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% versus VfL Wolfsburg 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | VfL Wolfsburg 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.30 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.806 / defence 1.120 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.205 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.824 / away 1.186. VfL Wolfsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 37 VfL Wolfsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 41%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | VfL Wolfsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.30 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.806 / def 1.120 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.205 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.824 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.60
VfL Wolfsburg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 28% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-D-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against VfL Wolfsburg's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
28%
3.55
31%
3.28
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.91
1.60
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
6%
17.60
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.60 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 0W 1D 2L record — L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, VfL Wolfsburg are the form team by 2.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when VfL Wolfsburg 4-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 33% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 67%; SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play VfL Wolfsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 33% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 33% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.30 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.60 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.21 / defence 0.89, drawn from 3/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28% | Draw 31% | VfL Wolfsburg 41%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.