SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Augsburg make the trip to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to face SpVgg Greuther Fürth in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 December 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 3.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 1D 5L this season (7 games, 0.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Augsburg are 0.90 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.20 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% versus FC Augsburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75% | FC Augsburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG and FC Augsburg 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.735 / defence 1.381 | FC Augsburg attack 0.789 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.777 / away 1.331. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 50 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 27% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 41%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | FC Augsburg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | FC Augsburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 27% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 / FC Augsburg 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.735 / def 1.381 | FC Augsburg attack 0.789 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.777 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 27% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.79x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
27%
3.65
31%
3.20
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.60
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.45 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 1W 1D 14L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Augsburg are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 3.06 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.06 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 1D 14L in their last 16 games (0.25 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or FC Augsburg away?
FC Augsburg's away record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.57 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when FC Augsburg 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%, FC Augsburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 43% (FC Augsburg).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Augsburg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 43% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 43% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SpVgg Greuther Fürth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and FC Augsburg finished level at 0-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG and FC Augsburg 1.45 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.73 / defence 1.38 against FC Augsburg attack 0.79 / defence 0.88, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 27% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 41%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75%, FC Augsburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Augsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.